Geico Caveman – Research: http://youtu.be/QG1ObrqpPao
It’s “old” news…
The history of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) gives clues about its future. Southward grounding-line migration was dated past three locations in the Ross Sea Embayment. Results indicate that most recession occurred during the middle to late Holocene in the absence of substantial sea level or climate forcing. Current grounding-line retreat may reflect ongoing ice recession that has been under way since the early Holocene. If so, the WAIS could continue to retreat even in the absence of further external forcing…
The collapse (retreat of the grounding line) began about 20,000 years ago. It is irreversible because “the WAIS could continue to retreat even in the absence of further external forcing” and there are no topographic obstacles to prevent it from flowing downhill into the ocean.
One has to wonder why this paper didn’t merit panic+stricken headlines in 1999
It’s the same story, just from the other side of the peninsula.
H. Conway et al, 1999. Past and Future Grounding-Line Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science 8 October 1999: Vol. 286 no. 5438 pp. 280-283
The hyping of Lovejoy, 2014 (L14) has been almost as unprecedented as his conclusions are unsupported…
Lovejoy piles on with the sort of trash talk normally associated with activist bloggers, rather than professional scientific publications…
“This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers,” Lovejoy says. “Their two most convincing arguments – that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong – are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.”
Lovejoy’s “analysis” addresses neither the natural variability of the Late Holocene climate, nor the abject failure of the computer models. That said, Lovejoy does deserve credit for trying an empirical approach, independent of models and at least paying lip service to natural variability. However, L14 is seriously flawed in at least three ways:
- Nothing in Earth Science is 99% certain.
- A fundamental misunderstanding of Holocene climate variability.
- A totally unscientific and demistrabky wrong assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity.