What a difference a year can make!!!

The BBC article goes on to say…

If a trend meets the 95% threshold, it basically means that the odds of it being down to chance are less than one in 20.

Last year’s analysis, which went to 2009, did not reach this threshold; but adding data for 2010 takes it over the line.

“The trend over the period 1995-2009 was significant at the 90% level, but wasn’t significant at the standard 95% level that people use,” Professor Jones told BBC News.

“Basically what’s changed is one more year [of data]. That period 1995-2009 was just 15 years – and because of the uncertainty in estimating trends over short periods, an extra year has made that trend significant at the 95% level which is the traditional threshold that statisticians have used for many years.

“It just shows the difficulty of achieving significance with a short time series, and that’s why longer series – 20 or 30 years – would be a much better way of estimating trends and getting significance on a consistent basis.”

Professor Jones’ previous comment, from a BBC interview in February 2010, is routinely quoted – erroneously – as demonstration that the Earth’s surface temperature is not rising.

What a difference a year can make!!! 1995-2009 was not a statistically significant warming trend.

One year later… We now have a statistically significant warming trend!

So… Does this mean that if the cooling trend since 2001 is still present in 2016, that we will then have statistically significant global cooling?

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: