“Same as it ever was”… The rate of warming.

When confronted with the fact that the current global temperature anomaly is not significantly different than the warmest part of the Medieval Warm Period, the Gorebots will resort to the claim that the rate of warming in the late 20th century was unprecedented.

That claim, like most other Gorebot claims, is false.

Here is the HadCRUT3 global temperature anomaly (GTA) for 1977-2010 plotted with the GTA for 1911-1944…

HadCRUT3 Global Temperature Anomaly 1911-1944 & 1977-2010

 

Here’s the HadCRUT3 Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly for 1976-2010 plotted with a non-carbonated interval from the Medieval Warm Period (Moberg et al., 2005)…

HadCRUT3 Northern Hemisphere 1976-2010 & Moberg 863-897

 

In both examples, the slopes are statistically indistinguishable.

The 66-yr period from 1944-2010 is pretty well indistinguishable from the first 66 years of three different century-scale cool-warm-cool cycles from Moberg’s Medieval Warm Period reconstruction…

HadCRUT3 NH 1944-2010 & Moberg 831-930, 961-1050, 1038-1138

 

 The peak of the Modern Warming is, at most, 0.1 to 0.2°C warmer than the peaks of three comparable, non-carbonated, intervals of the Medieval Warm Period.  However, that difference is not statistically meaningful.

  • The error bars of all of the data sets are greater than the differences between them.
  • The proxy data show the MWP to be warmer than the late 20th century.
  • The proxies invariably have a lower resolution than the instrumental data; thus the amplitude of the proxy time series is attenuated relative to the instrumental record.

This means that the late 20th century warming might have been slightly warmer than the peak of the MWP.  Almost all of the potential error is in the direction of magnifying the warmth of the Modern Warming relative to the MWP.

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10 Responses to ““Same as it ever was”… The rate of warming.”

  1. Fred Mueller Says:

    just your use of terms like “Gorebot” lead me to conclude that you are in fact not at all scientifically inclined, but just politically inclined

    The whole point of the global warming argument is that we have an indisputable spike of co2 concentration that will cross 400 ppm. It is an uncorrelated spike, the most likely cause is the burning of fossil fuel and it might have consequences well beyond the natural cycle.

  2. Pascvaks Says:

    Tow cents from nowhere – the use of the term Gorebots is quite appropriate. It speaks volumes. Science is not politics. Politics is not science. But the two do tend to get mixed every so often. Today seems to be more mixed than ever. Oh well, such is life! Ying Yang as ever.

  3. Yoldriana Says:

    I like this site, glad I found it. Comments such as “the most likely cause” is this and therefore it “might” do that which leads to the only logical conclusion that we should wreck our economy and forfiet our way of life really cheer me up.

  4. sunsettommy Says:

    The warming trend in the late 1800’s is also similar.

  5. sunsettommy Says:

    “The whole point of the global warming argument is that we have an indisputable spike of co2 concentration that will cross 400 ppm. It is an uncorrelated spike, the most likely cause is the burning of fossil fuel and it might have consequences well beyond the natural cycle.”

    The problem is Fred that the climate system is very quick to change.Yet we never see any fingerprint of a CO2 (AGW) driven change in that system.

  6. sunsettommy Says:

    Icecap has a nice chart that explodes the idea that CO2 is a driver of temperature trends.It appears that ocean surface temperature trends are much more significant.

    Website story here:

    http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/2010_where_does_it_fit_in_the_warmest_year_list/

  7. global warming Says:

    global warming…

    […]“Same as it ever was”… The rate of warming. « Debunk House[…]…

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